--- title: "What Is a Bear Market?" term: "Bear market" type: glossary_term canonical: https://www.moonwire.org/insights/glossary/bear-market.html --- # What Is a Bear Market? > A bear market is an extended price decline, conventionally dated from a peak once an asset or index has fallen about 20% and stayed down. The threshold is a convention borrowed from equities and applied loosely in crypto, so the label depends as much on duration and character as on depth. A **bear market** is an extended decline in prices, conventionally dated from a peak once a broad index or asset has fallen roughly **20%** and stayed down. Its mirror is a bull market. The threshold is a convention rather than a definition — it comes from equity-market usage and is carried over to crypto loosely, which is why two commentators can disagree about whether one is underway at all. ## The 20% convention and its limits Bitcoin has repeatedly fallen more than 20% inside stretches that were later described as bull markets. A drawdown that would mark a bear market in a large equity index is an unremarkable week in crypto, so in practice the label leans on **duration and character** as much as depth: months rather than days, lower highs as well as lower lows, and a change in what the market rewards. Because of that ambiguity, the useful question is usually *whose* bear market. Someone reading a weekly chart and someone describing a multi-year cycle can both use the phrase correctly and mean entirely different things — a distinction worth holding on to whenever the term appears in a headline. ## How MoonWire uses it We do not declare bear markets. Our reads classify conditions mechanically as a [market regime](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/glossary/market-regime.md), and we report the phrase when a source uses it, attributed to that source. In our [11 August market pulse](/insights/market-pulse-2026-08-11.html) the same 20% lag in Bitcoin was read by two analysts as opposite things: a verdict on the cycle, or the precondition for the next leg up. Our [13 August pulse](/insights/market-pulse-2026-08-13.html) covered a comparable split over where the market's liquidity had gone. ## What it is not A bear market is not a forecast, a fixed duration or a floor. It is a backward-looking description of a price path, and it carries no information about when that path ends — the 20% figure marks the entry, never the exit. It also says nothing about individual assets, since sectors and single coins routinely move against the aggregate. ## Further reading - [Wikipedia: Market trend](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_trend) - [Corporate Finance Institute: Bear Market](https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/career-map/sell-side/capital-markets/bear-market/) ## Where this appears in MoonWire analysis - [The Bitcoin Argument Moved From Direction to the Calendar](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/market-pulse-2026-09-20.md) — Sep 20, 2026 - [Gambling Took Crypto's Liquidity, One Analyst Says. Another Sees It Turning](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/market-pulse-2026-08-13.md) — Aug 13, 2026 - [Bitcoin's 20% Lag Was Read Two Ways in One Day: Verdict or Precondition](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/market-pulse-2026-08-11.md) — Aug 11, 2026 - [The Bid Came Back in Bitcoin's Options Book, Not Its Futures Book](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/market-pulse-2026-08-08.md) — Aug 8, 2026 - [Money-Market Funds and the S&P 500 Moved Onto Crypto Rails. The Same Day, Self-Custody's Loss Count Passed $100 Million.](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/market-pulse-2026-08-04.md) — Aug 5, 2026 - [Market Pulse - August 1: A Patch Reaches the Firmware, Not the Keys It Already Made. Two Other Stories Saturday Worked the Same Way.](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/market-pulse-2026-08-01.md) — Aug 2, 2026 - [Market Pulse - July 31: Bitcoin's Trustless Device Failed at Making a Secret. An Insured Custodian Named That Night Came With a Bank Charter.](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/market-pulse-2026-07-31.md) — Jul 31, 2026 - [Market Pulse — July 8: The Builders Stepped Back, and the Balance Sheets Stepped In](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/market-pulse-2026-07-08.md) — Jul 8, 2026 - [Market Pulse — June 27: The Bottom-Callers Got Louder Exactly as the Case Against Them Got Stronger](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/market-pulse-2026-06-27.md) — Jun 27, 2026 - [Market Pulse — June 17: The Exchange Came for the Brokerage](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/market-pulse-2026-06-17.md) — Jun 17, 2026 --- *MoonWire surfaces and summarizes public crypto news.* **General information only — not financial advice.** MoonWire Ltd. is not licensed by ASIC and holds no AFSL. This content does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs, and is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. *This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence and may be inaccurate, incomplete, or fabricated. Independently verify before acting.* © 2026 MoonWire Ltd. · [Terms](https://www.moonwire.org/legal/TOS) · [Risk Disclosure](https://www.moonwire.org/legal/RISK_DISCLOSURE) · [Privacy Policy](https://www.moonwire.org/legal/PRIVACY_POLICY)