--- title: "What Is a Market Regime? Risk-On, Risk-Off, Choppy and Rotation" term: "Market regime" type: glossary_term canonical: https://www.moonwire.org/insights/glossary/market-regime.html --- # What Is a Market Regime? Risk-On, Risk-Off, Choppy and Rotation > A label for the kind of market conditions in force over a period — trending up (risk-on), trending down (risk-off), range-bound (choppy), or capital broadening into altcoins (rotation). A **market regime** is a description of the overall conditions a market is trading in, as distinct from the price of any single asset. The same news lands differently in a trending market than in a sideways one, so naming the regime is a way of stating the backdrop before discussing individual moves. ## The four regimes MoonWire calls Each [prognosis](/insights/prognosis-daily-2026-09-09.html) issues one week-ahead regime read, chosen from four labels. Every label has a fixed grading rule, applied mechanically when the call expires: - **Risk-on** — Bitcoin ends the period **above its 20-day simple moving average** *and* has risen by **more than the flat band** (currently 3%) over the call's horizon. - **Risk-off** — Bitcoin ends **below its 20-day SMA** *and* has fallen by **more than the band**. - **Choppy** — Bitcoin's return over the horizon stays **inside the band** (within ±3%): range-bound, whatever the headlines. - **Rotation** — capital broadened into altcoins. This is graded on **breadth**: the share of large-cap coins (market-cap ranks 2–10) and of mid-caps (ranks 11–20) that out-returned Bitcoin over the period. The call counts as correct when at least 60% of the large caps beat Bitcoin — the early, broad and "altseason" patterns all qualify — and as incorrect when breadth instead shows Bitcoin leading or a mixed picture. The basket of coins is frozen when the call is issued, so coins that crash out of the top 20 during the week still count. Without that rule the measured breadth would be flattered by survivorship. ## Why objective rules matter A regime label with no grading rule can be defended after the fact whatever happened. Tying each label to thresholds on data anyone can check turns the read into a forecast that can be scored — and scored against a [base rate](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/glossary/base-rate.md), with the result reported as a [Brier skill score](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/glossary/brier-skill-score.md). ## What a regime read is not It is a description of expected conditions, not an instruction. A risk-on read does not mean every asset rises, and a choppy read can coexist with large moves in individual coins. ## Further reading - [Wikipedia: Probabilistic forecasting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probabilistic_forecasting) - [Wikipedia: Moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average) ## Where this appears in MoonWire analysis - [Prognosis daily - rotation holds, three slots stay open, and the one call we refused](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/prognosis-daily-2026-09-09.md) — Sep 11, 2026 - [Prognosis daily - 29 Aug: one fresh Solana lean, the rest of the book left running](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/prognosis-daily-2026-08-29.md) — Sep 11, 2026 - [Choppy holds, breadth splits down the middle, and two calls resolve against us](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/prognosis-daily-2026-08-16.md) — Sep 11, 2026 - [Week-ahead read: a thin news window, a choppy tape, and four calls that all landed](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/prognosis-daily-2026-08-09.md) — Sep 11, 2026 - [Macro takes the wheel: a weak jobs print, an unchanged policy rate, and a tape that keeps thinning](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/prognosis-daily-2026-08-08.md) — Sep 11, 2026 --- *MoonWire surfaces and summarizes public crypto news.* **General information only — not financial advice.** MoonWire Ltd. is not licensed by ASIC and holds no AFSL. This content does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs, and is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. *This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence and may be inaccurate, incomplete, or fabricated. Independently verify before acting.* © 2026 MoonWire Ltd. · [Terms](https://www.moonwire.org/legal/TOS) · [Risk Disclosure](https://www.moonwire.org/legal/RISK_DISCLOSURE) · [Privacy Policy](https://www.moonwire.org/legal/PRIVACY_POLICY)