--- title: "Bitcoin Sat on Strategy's Cost Basis; K33 Saw 2023, XO Stayed Defensive" published: 2026-11-09T06:33:38.566256+00:00 type: market_pulse scope: crypto_market canonical: https://www.moonwire.org/insights/market-pulse-2026-11-08.html tags: [bitcoin, ethereum, sentiment, altcoins, custody, stablecoins] --- # Bitcoin Sat on Strategy's Cost Basis; K33 Saw 2023, XO Stayed Defensive > Bitcoin sat within a fraction of a percent of Strategy's average cost on the chart Michael Saylor posted, and the reads cited here split on what that level means: K33 Research's head of research likened conditions to 2023, while XO stayed defensive. CredibleCrypto still looked for relief led by Bitcoin, and Vitalik Buterin argued that ETH's value rests on store-of-value stability rather than on fee burn. ## Key takeaways - A chart [Michael Saylor](/s/_TR8sX9YT3KFIkBenyG5CQ?p=a7054b72a757) posted put Strategy's 849,327 [BTC](/s/dprQn6-YSUqZakJvP-syVQ?p=a7054b72a757) at an average cost of $75,446, with the position up 0.21% as of 8 November [[1]](/s/2H5r1HMSSY-MUtTapyO-Bg?p=a7054b72a757). - K33 Research's Vetle Lunde said the market very closely resembles 2023 and pointed to signs of long-term holders' selling pressure subsiding materially [[2]](/s/sVXB-JflQIqFspSzZ7rjjA?p=a7054b72a757). - [XO](/s/78TEtU6tSTe5cuhTT0JLgg?p=a7054b72a757) described being defensive and selective and read any sharp short-squeeze rallies as likely to trade back down, while CredibleCrypto's primary expectation was relief led by Bitcoin pushing for 90k+ [[3]](/s/dEpv_nOGSNa0CjpyCkyIqg?p=a7054b72a757)[[6]](/s/5u1vhMKvTn-2xA8n0ZaAuw?p=a7054b72a757). - [Vitalik Buterin](/s/HyAQ_6dqSD23kZXX66lUfA?p=a7054b72a757) argued that [ETH](/s/MMSdHldPQYu_teda6f8wnw?p=a7054b72a757) is better framed as a store of value than as a fee-burning token, writing that the value of ETH comes from elsewhere [[10]](/s/Qr946_XJQoSQ2dVJfnnYlw?p=a7054b72a757). - CoinShares' James Butterfill said a broad altcoin season is "never going to restart again", with surveyed institutional allocation at about 1.3% [[8]](/s/ubnJE1IrRx-LcZgTAQqzKA?p=a7054b72a757). [Bitcoin](/s/dprQn6-YSUqZakJvP-syVQ?p=a7054b72a757) sat within a fraction of a percent of Strategy's average cost on the chart [Michael Saylor](/s/_TR8sX9YT3KFIkBenyG5CQ?p=a7054b72a757) posted, and the reads cited here split on what that level means. K33 Research's head of research saw a 2023-style lull, while [XO](/s/78TEtU6tSTe5cuhTT0JLgg?p=a7054b72a757) saw a market to stay defensive in [[1]](/s/2H5r1HMSSY-MUtTapyO-Bg?p=a7054b72a757)[[2]](/s/sVXB-JflQIqFspSzZ7rjjA?p=a7054b72a757)[[3]](/s/dEpv_nOGSNa0CjpyCkyIqg?p=a7054b72a757). ## Strategy's breakeven as the reference point Saylor's chart put Strategy's reserve at 849,327 BTC, worth $64.44 billion as of 8 November, at an average cost of $75,446 and a profit of 0.21% [[1]](/s/2H5r1HMSSY-MUtTapyO-Bg?p=a7054b72a757). Bitcoin's official account posted a price of $75,821.05 [[4]](/s/Jt7P4C0qQe6k14ja1bG7pw?p=a7054b72a757). XO wrote of "price pushing down to 73s" in the last hour or so before posting [[3]](/s/dEpv_nOGSNa0CjpyCkyIqg?p=a7054b72a757). Saylor's other post kept to the supply argument: "AI can make me rap. It can't print Bitcoin." [[5]](/s/nMaYT5miR2iCbEyh_Iodig?p=a7054b72a757) ## The constructive read: a quiet floor Interviewed by [Lark Davis](/s/QVwpcaQCRTCY6iQJDTqCew?p=a7054b72a757), K33 Research's Vetle Lunde said the market "very closely resembles what we experienced throughout 2023" and added that "it's in this kind of boring periods where opportunities arise" [[2]](/s/sVXB-JflQIqFspSzZ7rjjA?p=a7054b72a757). Lunde described a quarter of the Bitcoin supply being sold by long-term holders in 2024 and 2025, followed by "signs of this sellside pressure subsiding materially". Lunde also said Bitcoin no longer reacts heavily to negative headlines the way it did in the past, and put that down to few sellers being present in the market [[2]](/s/sVXB-JflQIqFspSzZ7rjjA?p=a7054b72a757). CredibleCrypto's primary expectation was "relief across the board (led by BTC pushing for 90k+)" as the next major move. The same post asked readers to be patient at the lows rather than react to "all the doom posting on the timeline" [[6]](/s/5u1vhMKvTn-2xA8n0ZaAuw?p=a7054b72a757). On [Ether](/s/MMSdHldPQYu_teda6f8wnw?p=a7054b72a757), the account wrote "There's the move down, now we look for the reclaim." It then told a follower that fresh demand only forms once the reclaim arrives: "we are still waiting for that" [[7]](/s/-Xf4w_aETJ-giMAi9gp-uQ?p=a7054b72a757). ## The defensive read XO described being "defensive and selective" and wanted to see how Monday's range developed [[3]](/s/dEpv_nOGSNa0CjpyCkyIqg?p=a7054b72a757). XO expected price to "ebb and flow both ways with sharp moves across indices / equities as well as bitcoin". XO also wrote that sharp rallies fuelled by short squeezes would not come as a surprise, but read such rallies as likely to give way to a trade back down [[3]](/s/dEpv_nOGSNa0CjpyCkyIqg?p=a7054b72a757). On altcoins, CoinShares' head of research James Butterfill said that when asked when altcoin season would start, the answer had been "it's never going to restart again" [[8]](/s/ubnJE1IrRx-LcZgTAQqzKA?p=a7054b72a757). Butterfill also said surveyed institutional allocation had risen to about 1.3% [[8]](/s/ubnJE1IrRx-LcZgTAQqzKA?p=a7054b72a757). [Mayne](/s/cLH6mTi3RESWBRw34SZ5cA?p=a7054b72a757), meanwhile, posed the question of how to prepare for a multi-year [bear market](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/glossary/bear-market.md) [[9]](/s/iOxMGNy7S9uPrMxrJfthCQ?p=a7054b72a757). ## Buterin's case: ETH beyond the burn [Vitalik Buterin](/s/HyAQ_6dqSD23kZXX66lUfA?p=a7054b72a757) argued that "ETH as store of value (SoV)" makes much more sense to focus on than "ETH as fee-burning token" [[10]](/s/Qr946_XJQoSQ2dVJfnnYlw?p=a7054b72a757). Buterin wrote that EIP-1559 and its burn should be kept, but that "the value of ETH comes from elsewhere" and that "in the era of AI disruption, stability will be highly valued" [[10]](/s/Qr946_XJQoSQ2dVJfnnYlw?p=a7054b72a757). ## Security and custody at the edges Keplr switched off Google and Apple logins after a Web3Auth breach, which is covered in a separate brief [[11]](/s/mzUQ-_sfTOGyNBjnw1KMtQ?p=a7054b72a757). [OKX](/s/TCokaPMLTKORiznCoV3g6Q?p=a7054b72a757) marked four years of monthly Proof of Reserves reports, and its latest chart showed reserve ratios of 108% for BTC, 101% for ETH, 106% for [USDT](/s/9oXno4eKSc2mImkBLcFVLg?p=a7054b72a757) and 100% for USDC [[12]](/s/JeFndEYuRHmdHscorfNLYA?p=a7054b72a757). [Coin Bureau](/s/gW3t6pXYTIec3Hdd4gJvPg?p=a7054b72a757) compared the cold-storage figures that exchanges published after the Binance hack and cautioned: "Exchanges do not calculate their reserves the exact same way. So these percentages are not directly comparable." [[13]](/s/KOW-1uGXTOamhiksLZdgKg?p=a7054b72a757) ## Elsewhere in the window [Nansen](/s/YxVcFpnGSc2bWw6S-_o91A?p=a7054b72a757) reported that Anthropic's pre-IPO market on Hyperliquid was down about 8.7% in 24 hours to about $97, even as Anthropic was reportedly still targeting an IPO before Thanksgiving [[14]](/s/VTYH8JU_T5mjz-RVxfEK6w?p=a7054b72a757). [Whale Alert](/s/XupC7b76Q8mKUN8AfHsE4A?p=a7054b72a757) flagged 179,999,990 USDT moving from an unknown wallet to Poloniex at 17:29 UTC [[15]](/s/vSWgDFuARBWps2gBMxYG7Q?p=a7054b72a757). It also flagged 197,000,000 USDT moving from Poloniex to Aave at 18:07 UTC [[16]](/s/tPOae16nSqC8jr_9Rx6Ikg?p=a7054b72a757). Lark Davis called a renewed Iran conflict a wild card, warning that attacks on Middle Eastern oil fields would make things "really really bad for the global economy" [[17]](/s/wDC9qy6TTl-1d_oK-YdeJg?p=a7054b72a757). --- *MoonWire surfaces and summarizes public crypto news.* **General information only — not financial advice.** MoonWire Ltd. is not licensed by ASIC and holds no AFSL. This content does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs, and is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. *This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence and may be inaccurate, incomplete, or fabricated. 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