--- title: "Bitcoin Rallied Through a Fed Hike and a Failed Bill. Then Yields Hit 5.3%" published: 2026-10-28T03:54:36.393629+00:00 type: state_of_market scope: crypto_market canonical: https://www.moonwire.org/insights/state-of-market-2026-09.html tags: [bitcoin, macro, regulation, etf, altcoins, leverage] --- # Bitcoin Rallied Through a Fed Hike and a Failed Bill. Then Yields Hit 5.3% > September brought three headlines that read against crypto: a rate hike, a failed Senate vote and the highest 10-year yield since 2002. Bitcoin climbed through the first two to levels not seen since the start of the year. By month-end the rally had stalled under a long-term-holder supply wall, ETF demand had faded, and attention was turning toward altcoins. ## Key takeaways - Bitcoin cleared $85,000 for the first time since the start of the year [[4]](/s/QLs2p4rGQNmAsg8URipyjg?p=a7054b72a757), days after a 49-50 Senate defeat for the Clarity Act [[2]](/s/wWuMu26yQYWrP_NQbwO1qw?p=a7054b72a757) and a 0.25% Fed hike [[1]](/s/_2crSK2YT7yY2Fz1_kbmgw?p=a7054b72a757). - Glassnode measured the rally running on less leverage: Bitcoin was up 35% from the August low while coin-denominated open interest fell about 20% [[20]](/s/MOKTxsXzTYyn0yo9krHvkA?p=a7054b72a757). - By month-end the rally met a ceiling. Glassnode put Bitcoin under a long-term-holder supply cluster at $84-85K [[5]](/s/T299BpmySfKdP3j8OR_w6w?p=a7054b72a757), and Lark Davis reported ETF inflows falling from $999 million to $31 million [[6]](/s/VNIoQQJLQ6SVLVL7hxazzA?p=a7054b72a757). - The 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5.30% on the month's final day, its highest since 2002 [[3]](/s/LU3rw8nASb62dS0E_48dxQ?p=a7054b72a757). - Glassnode flipped its Altcoin Cycle Signal to altcoin season [[34]](/s/zC3nmV0ZRs-DKxpKb9XMPQ?p=a7054b72a757) but noted that altcoin volume surges have lined up with local Bitcoin tops [[35]](/s/4J7Gpb6uRJeasHAwpz78rA?p=a7054b72a757). September brought crypto three headlines that read against it: a Federal Reserve rate hike [[1]](/s/_2crSK2YT7yY2Fz1_kbmgw?p=a7054b72a757), a failed Senate vote on the [Digital Asset Market Clarity Act](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/glossary/clarity-act.md) [[2]](/s/wWuMu26yQYWrP_NQbwO1qw?p=a7054b72a757), and a 10-year Treasury yield above 5.30%, the highest since 2002 [[3]](/s/LU3rw8nASb62dS0E_48dxQ?p=a7054b72a757). Bitcoin rallied through the first two to levels not seen since the start of the year [[4]](/s/QLs2p4rGQNmAsg8URipyjg?p=a7054b72a757), then stalled in the final week [[5]](/s/T299BpmySfKdP3j8OR_w6w?p=a7054b72a757). Last month's flagship closed on a price that ignored the money. September's price ignored the news, and by the last days of the month the money was the part that went quiet [[6]](/s/VNIoQQJLQ6SVLVL7hxazzA?p=a7054b72a757). ## The month's defining events The policy shock came first. On 15 September the Senate's cloture vote on the Clarity Act failed 49-50, short of the 60 votes needed to open debate. Every Democrat present and four Republicans voted no [[2]](/s/wWuMu26yQYWrP_NQbwO1qw?p=a7054b72a757). Coin Bureau's account named two objections: Democrats said the text let politicians profit from their own crypto ventures, and banks fought the [stablecoin](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/glossary/stablecoin.md) rules [[7]](/s/zqUNcRJ8QwWx9T61slb70Q?p=a7054b72a757). The vote was not the last word. Senator Thom Tillis filed a motion to bring the bill back, and the bill expires on 3 January 2027 [[8]](/s/PKvjRrCDQIu6RhDm_R_suw?p=a7054b72a757). Ripple said the failure did not change its legal standing [[9]](/s/M2H4YPyRRJiRvwUWyL8bZQ?p=a7054b72a757). The [SEC](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/glossary/sec.md) said it would use its statutory authority to give investors and crypto entrepreneurs certainty whether or not the legislation passed [[10]](/s/OrsDD1MqSk-41n7VSFsiFg?p=a7054b72a757). The Fed raised rates by 0.25% the next day [[1]](/s/_2crSK2YT7yY2Fz1_kbmgw?p=a7054b72a757). The data before it had run hot or in line: - August payrolls rose by 162,000 against a 55,000 forecast [[11]](/s/8p91gzOFTuqA4Ma-9UvT8A?p=a7054b72a757). - August PPI came in at 5.4% against 5.3% expected [[12]](/s/lgD5DV2GSqOMgDBBbpPxZQ?p=a7054b72a757). - August CPI matched expectations at 3.4% [[13]](/s/ozO70S6dSySHaJ7Ct-Vw1Q?p=a7054b72a757). Rates kept climbing after the decision. A September composite PMI of 58.4 pushed the 10-year from around 5.03% to above 5.10% [[14]](/s/caoH1RzSS_uKbtFBL_J9fw?p=a7054b72a757). On the last day of the month it crossed 5.30%, up 55 basis points in September and 138 since the March low, with US mortgage rates nearing 7.60% [[3]](/s/LU3rw8nASb62dS0E_48dxQ?p=a7054b72a757). Mayne put it this way: "Not only are yields rising. They are rising with velocity." [[3]](/s/LU3rw8nASb62dS0E_48dxQ?p=a7054b72a757) ## How Bitcoin traded the news Bitcoin sat near $75,000 after the Clarity vote [[15]](/s/0KrW3OQpRhuNKWHHsfx5Hw?p=a7054b72a757). Before the CPI release, Trader Mayne said he expected a 25-basis-point hike that markets had already priced in [[16]](/s/m69ct7brRvOmi0Z5eFslHw?p=a7054b72a757). Once the hike landed, Lark Davis opened a stream calling it "A very bullish Federal Reserve rate hike" [[17]](/s/eNZYR2fnTp2I9oQYwqeA3A?p=a7054b72a757). The break came when Bitcoin [perpetuals](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/glossary/perpetual-futures.md) moved above $85,000 for the first time since the start of the year [[4]](/s/QLs2p4rGQNmAsg8URipyjg?p=a7054b72a757). Two accounts described what drove it: - Trader_XO attributed the move to a short squeeze and strong spot buying, with $648 million of crypto shorts [liquidated](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/glossary/liquidation.md) [[18]](/s/B6R_HhnZS7uckf222yTOeQ?p=a7054b72a757). - Coin Bureau described a $1 billion liquidation cascade that forced short sellers to buy, in spite of the Clarity defeat, the hike and an AI-sector pullback [[19]](/s/zILjprkPSo-gRiwbTglbTw?p=a7054b72a757). Glassnode's numbers showed the advance running on less leverage, not more. Bitcoin was up 35% from the August low while coin-denominated [open interest](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/glossary/open-interest.md) fell about 20%, to its lowest level since March [[20]](/s/MOKTxsXzTYyn0yo9krHvkA?p=a7054b72a757). A Glassnode futures leverage ratio fell to 0.24, a two-year low [[21]](/s/NWC5bJ9GTBWLfpuyGK4-qw?p=a7054b72a757). Glassnode also reported Bitcoin back above its 200-day, 365-day and 50-week [moving averages](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/glossary/moving-average.md), after 319 days below at least one of them [[22]](/s/24ynKjXhRrqX-24L7zFLzQ?p=a7054b72a757). Large holders kept building: - A Michael Saylor chart showed Strategy holding 846,000 BTC at an average cost of $75,416 [[23]](/s/IL55OOvnQteSweH16tMHhg?p=a7054b72a757). - A post CZ quoted reported Deutsche Bank launching a [crypto custody](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/glossary/crypto-custody.md) service for institutions. CZ's own framing was that the relationship is not crypto against banks but "just fintech" [[24]](/s/9k44-M7RQW2RgZT9Zr9Nsg?p=a7054b72a757). ## Where it stalled In the final week the conversation turned from breakout to ceiling. Glassnode placed Bitcoin below the densest long-term-holder supply cluster, at $84-85K [[5]](/s/T299BpmySfKdP3j8OR_w6w?p=a7054b72a757), and described a seller wall at $85K [[25]](/s/U5wfq5nnTgS5lf2TTpNN2g?p=a7054b72a757). Lark Davis reported Bitcoin [ETF inflows](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/glossary/etf-flows.md) falling from $999 million on Monday to $31 million [[6]](/s/VNIoQQJLQ6SVLVL7hxazzA?p=a7054b72a757). Two analysts named nearly the same floor: Mayne at about $82,811 [[26]](/s/xRJ3yRypRk6Qmo4IBIjJ3A?p=a7054b72a757) and Lark Davis at 82,500 [[27]](/s/jnIGIr73RnyZ-K8Qn9w_Dg?p=a7054b72a757). Davis also read the rate backdrop differently from the macro headlines. He argued that 25-year-high US rates could help Bitcoin's digital-gold narrative [[27]](/s/jnIGIr73RnyZ-K8Qn9w_Dg?p=a7054b72a757). ## Where the curated voices agreed and split Several of the analyst voices we track described a turn in the second half of the month: - Trader Mayne opened an episode with "The market is extremely bullish" [[28]](/s/_TEcBqIMSuy1qTCMAe-zSA?p=a7054b72a757). - Lark Davis placed Bitcoin's bottom near $57,000 [[29]](/s/ZHXQJ3ICQB-m89JWkLkhGQ?p=a7054b72a757). - Ansem said the market bottom was in and pointed to a fourth-quarter move [[30]](/s/CymIkOKWRfWU-j_Enqcatw?p=a7054b72a757). Others took the other side: - CredibleCrypto charted a bounce toward $88k followed by a deeper pullback into the $75-79k range [[31]](/s/6SpK7MNGQn-vz5yvmbk0KA?p=a7054b72a757). - A Coin Bureau analyst reported a short entry at $86,200 [[32]](/s/jCWSQ1hkSYKaIAj7Ah2Rxg?p=a7054b72a757). - Investing Made Simple flagged the US midterm election and a historically turbulent October-November stretch as downside risks [[33]](/s/8w1av3Q_Tp63AadR-tl07g?p=a7054b72a757). ## The rotation question Glassnode's Altcoin Cycle Signal flipped to altcoin season [[34]](/s/zC3nmV0ZRs-DKxpKb9XMPQ?p=a7054b72a757). Glassnode measured total spot volume at close to four times Bitcoin's, the highest since September 2025, and noted that rises in this ratio have lined up with local Bitcoin tops [[35]](/s/4J7Gpb6uRJeasHAwpz78rA?p=a7054b72a757). It also found less than 25% of the median altcoin's supply in profit [[36]](/s/RrKBjOi7S6yl7ylZ3ATHeg?p=a7054b72a757). Lark Davis reported about $188 million of Solana ETF inflows in a single week, which he described as their biggest inflow week [[37]](/s/00gyEDm8QBqJ_L6wDHg6PA?p=a7054b72a757). Trader_XO noted that altcoins were nearly six weeks into an advance, and that a 6-8 week window often brings a slowdown [[38]](/s/WPbziHexT3-Ft9WLiIEGoQ?p=a7054b72a757). In attention terms, Bitcoin and Ether stayed at the top of the conversation but lost ground. UNI and ZEC were among the few leading coins to gain attention, and [memecoins](https://www.moonwire.org/insights/glossary/memecoin.md) were the only top sector to grow, a mix that matches Lark Davis's revenue-token and Zcash themes [[39]](/s/JSFDbAZRTyKoH0neZ4KqBg?p=a7054b72a757). ## Security Bitget disclosed a $351.6 million hot-wallet hack on 24 September and said user funds were covered by a User Protection Fund holding over $464 million [[40]](/s/unPYPXKcTombVcT8jgRIeA?p=a7054b72a757). Nansen traced 40,000 ETH split evenly across four addresses, and Bitget said a private-key compromise had been ruled out [[41]](/s/Zwt5CP79Treow7FQo0G4Vg?p=a7054b72a757). Coin Bureau detailed how a criminal used a compromised Italian government email account to send forged police requests and obtain KYC files for about 680 Revolut users [[42]](/s/bWSvzTK_T6eqJVrBfuGtTQ?p=a7054b72a757). CoinEx began winding down, with withdrawals open until 22 December [[43]](/s/XzuxnwH9T_-0DvY7_2nqUw?p=a7054b72a757). --- *MoonWire surfaces and summarizes public crypto news.* **General information only — not financial advice.** MoonWire Ltd. is not licensed by ASIC and holds no AFSL. This content does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs, and is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. *This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence and may be inaccurate, incomplete, or fabricated. 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