Crypto Glossary: the Terms Behind MoonWire Analysis
Plain-English definitions of the terms MoonWire analysis uses — order blocks, efficiency ratio, open interest, ETF flows, mNAV, forecast scoring and more — each with real examples from our published coverage.
36 terms · browse analysis by topic
- Average true range (ATR)
A volatility measure: the average size of each bar's full trading range, including gaps from the previous close. It says how much price typically moves per bar, not in which direction.
Used in 6 analyses - Base rate
How often an event happens in general, before looking at any specific evidence. In forecasting it is the starting point, and the naive benchmark any real forecast has to beat.
Used in 61 analyses - Bear market
A bear market is an extended price decline, conventionally dated from a peak once an asset or index has fallen about 20% and stayed down. The threshold is a convention borrowed from equities and applied loosely in crypto, so the label depends as much on duration and character as on depth.
Used in 11 analyses - Brier score
A score for probability forecasts: the average squared gap between the probability given and what happened (1 or 0). Lower is better; 0 is perfect, and always saying 50% scores 0.25.
Used in 2 analyses - Brier skill score
How much better a set of probability forecasts scored than a simple reference forecast. Positive means better than the reference, zero means no better, negative means worse.
Used in 51 analyses - Capitulation
Capitulation is the point in a falling market where holders who meant to wait out the decline give up and exit at once, usually in a fast drop on a spike in volume and with forced sellers adding supply. It is a description of seller behaviour applied after the fact, not a signal or a price level.
Used in 11 analyses - CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission)
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is the US federal agency that regulates derivatives markets - futures, options and swaps. In crypto it supervises the contract and the venue listing it, which is why Bitcoin futures sit with the CFTC rather than the SEC.
Used in 19 analyses - CLARITY Act
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) is proposed US legislation that would divide market-structure oversight of digital assets between the SEC and the CFTC. It passed the House in July 2025 and had not passed the full Senate as of mid-September 2026.
Used in 23 analyses - Crypto custody
Crypto custody is the business of holding digital assets on someone else's behalf, with the custodian controlling the private keys. The client holds a claim on the firm rather than direct control of the coins.
Used in 30 analyses - Crypto exploit
A crypto exploit is an attack that uses a defect in software - a smart contract, a bridge, a wallet or a chain's own rules - to move assets without the owner's consent. It differs from a scam, which relies on persuading the owner to act.
Used in 23 analyses - Crypto whale
A wallet or entity holding enough of a crypto-asset that its transfers are visible in market data. There is no official threshold: analysts set one by balance - for bitcoin, commonly 1,000 BTC or more - and track those addresses on the public ledger.
Used in 18 analyses - DeFi (decentralized finance)
DeFi is financial plumbing - swapping, lending, borrowing, issuing - run by public smart contracts on a blockchain instead of by a company. Users interact from their own wallet, and the rules, balances and fees are readable on chain by anyone.
Used in 29 analyses - Efficiency ratio
A 0-to-1 measure of how directly price travelled: the net move over a window divided by the total distance covered bar by bar. Near 1 is a clean trend, near 0 is chop.
Used in 40 analyses - ETF flows
The net money moving into or out of exchange-traded funds. For spot crypto ETFs, inflows mean new shares created (and coins bought for the fund); outflows mean shares redeemed.
Used in 27 analyses - Forecast calibration
Whether stated probabilities match real frequencies: of all the times a forecaster said 70%, did the event happen about 70% of the time? It measures honesty of confidence, not accuracy.
Used in 26 analyses - Funding rate
The periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract that keeps its price near the spot price. Positive funding means longs pay shorts; negative means shorts pay longs.
Used in 2 analyses - GENIUS Act
The US federal law setting rules for payment stablecoins — who may issue them, what reserves must back them, and how issuers are supervised. It was signed into law on 18 July 2025.
Used in 6 analyses - Liquidation
The forced closing of a leveraged position by the exchange that financed it, triggered when the trader's collateral no longer covers the loss. The venue's risk engine picks the exit, not the trader.
Used in 18 analyses - Market capitalization
The last traded price of one coin multiplied by the number of coins in circulation. It measures what the whole supply would be worth at that price - not how much money has been invested in the asset.
Used in 19 analyses - Market regime
A label for the kind of market conditions in force over a period — trending up (risk-on), trending down (risk-off), range-bound (choppy), or capital broadening into altcoins (rotation).
Used in 38 analyses - Memecoin
A crypto token whose value rests on attention, community and internet culture rather than on a product, cash flow or technical claim. Most are issued on an existing blockchain and are cheap and quick to create.
Used in 19 analyses - MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation)
The European Union's regulation for crypto-assets, stablecoins and the firms serving them. It applies across all EU member states, and firms licensed in one state can serve clients EU-wide.
Used in 23 analyses - mNAV (multiple of net asset value)
A treasury company's market value divided by the value of the crypto it holds. Above 1 the market prices the company at a premium to its coins; below 1, at a discount.
Used in 5 analyses - Moving average (SMA and EMA)
The average closing price over a rolling window of bars. A simple moving average weights every bar equally; an exponential one weights recent bars more, so it reacts faster.
Used in 43 analyses - Multi-timeframe analysis
Reading the same market on several chart intervals at once, so a short-term move is judged against the longer trend it sits inside. Agreement across timeframes is itself information.
Used in 21 analyses - On-chain data
Information taken directly from a blockchain's public record - balances, transfers, fees, the age of coins that have not moved - rather than from an exchange order book. It describes settlement that has already happened, not quotes.
Used in 19 analyses - Open interest
The total number (or value) of derivative contracts — futures, perpetuals or options — that are open and not yet closed or settled. It rises when new positions open and falls when they close.
Used in 24 analyses - Order block
A price zone where trading concentrated just before a sharp move away, which price has not yet traded back through. Bullish blocks sit below price, bearish blocks above.
Used in 31 analyses - Perpetual futures (perps)
Futures contracts with no expiry date. Instead of settling on a fixed day, they are kept close to the spot price by periodic funding payments between longs and shorts.
Used in 26 analyses - Relative Strength Index (RSI)
A 0-to-100 momentum oscillator comparing the size of recent gains with recent losses. Readings above 70 are conventionally called overbought and below 30 oversold.
Used in 37 analyses - SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission)
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is the federal agency that regulates American securities markets. Created by the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, it decides which crypto assets count as securities, reviews filings, and brings civil enforcement actions.
Used in 31 analyses - Self-custody
Holding crypto in a wallet where you alone control the private keys, rather than leaving it with an exchange or custodian. It removes reliance on a third party and makes you responsible for security.
Used in 14 analyses - Spot bitcoin ETF
An exchange-traded fund that holds bitcoin itself, so its shares track the value of the coins in the fund. The SEC approved the first US spot bitcoin ETFs on 10 January 2024; spot ether ETFs followed later that year.
Used in 33 analyses - Stablecoin
A crypto token designed to keep a steady price against a reference asset, usually one US dollar. The largest are issued against reserves, mostly cash and short-dated government debt, held for the tokens in circulation.
Used in 58 analyses - Staking
Committing coins to help secure a proof-of-stake blockchain, in return for a share of the rewards the network pays validators. Rewards are paid in the staked coin, and misbehaviour can be penalised by slashing.
Used in 13 analyses - Support and resistance
Price levels where a market has repeatedly turned: support below price where declines have stalled, resistance above where advances have stalled. More touches means a better-tested level.
Used in 10 analyses