Crypto Glossary: the Terms Behind MoonWire Analysis
Plain-English definitions of the terms MoonWire analysis uses — order blocks, efficiency ratio, open interest, ETF flows, mNAV, forecast scoring and more — each with real examples from our published coverage.
20 terms · browse analysis by topic
- Average true range (ATR)
A volatility measure: the average size of each bar's full trading range, including gaps from the previous close. It says how much price typically moves per bar, not in which direction.
Used in 6 analyses - Base rate
How often an event happens in general, before looking at any specific evidence. In forecasting it is the starting point, and the naive benchmark any real forecast has to beat.
Used in 5 analyses - Brier score
A score for probability forecasts: the average squared gap between the probability given and what happened (1 or 0). Lower is better; 0 is perfect, and always saying 50% scores 0.25.
Used in 1 analysis - Brier skill score
How much better a set of probability forecasts scored than a simple reference forecast. Positive means better than the reference, zero means no better, negative means worse.
Used in 5 analyses - Efficiency ratio
A 0-to-1 measure of how directly price travelled: the net move over a window divided by the total distance covered bar by bar. Near 1 is a clean trend, near 0 is chop.
Used in 37 analyses - ETF flows
The net money moving into or out of exchange-traded funds. For spot crypto ETFs, inflows mean new shares created (and coins bought for the fund); outflows mean shares redeemed.
Used in 21 analyses - Forecast calibration
Whether stated probabilities match real frequencies: of all the times a forecaster said 70%, did the event happen about 70% of the time? It measures honesty of confidence, not accuracy.
Used in 3 analyses - Funding rate
The periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract that keeps its price near the spot price. Positive funding means longs pay shorts; negative means shorts pay longs.
Used in 2 analyses - GENIUS Act
The US federal law setting rules for payment stablecoins — who may issue them, what reserves must back them, and how issuers are supervised. It was signed into law on 18 July 2025.
Used in 6 analyses - Market regime
A label for the kind of market conditions in force over a period — trending up (risk-on), trending down (risk-off), range-bound (choppy), or capital broadening into altcoins (rotation).
Used in 5 analyses - MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation)
The European Union's regulation for crypto-assets, stablecoins and the firms serving them. It applies across all EU member states, and firms licensed in one state can serve clients EU-wide.
Used in 23 analyses - mNAV (multiple of net asset value)
A treasury company's market value divided by the value of the crypto it holds. Above 1 the market prices the company at a premium to its coins; below 1, at a discount.
Used in 5 analyses - Moving average (SMA and EMA)
The average closing price over a rolling window of bars. A simple moving average weights every bar equally; an exponential one weights recent bars more, so it reacts faster.
Used in 36 analyses - Multi-timeframe analysis
Reading the same market on several chart intervals at once, so a short-term move is judged against the longer trend it sits inside. Agreement across timeframes is itself information.
Used in 18 analyses - Open interest
The total number (or value) of derivative contracts — futures, perpetuals or options — that are open and not yet closed or settled. It rises when new positions open and falls when they close.
Used in 20 analyses - Order block
A price zone where trading concentrated just before a sharp move away, which price has not yet traded back through. Bullish blocks sit below price, bearish blocks above.
Used in 28 analyses - Perpetual futures (perps)
Futures contracts with no expiry date. Instead of settling on a fixed day, they are kept close to the spot price by periodic funding payments between longs and shorts.
Used in 22 analyses - Relative Strength Index (RSI)
A 0-to-100 momentum oscillator comparing the size of recent gains with recent losses. Readings above 70 are conventionally called overbought and below 30 oversold.
Used in 37 analyses - Self-custody
Holding crypto in a wallet where you alone control the private keys, rather than leaving it with an exchange or custodian. It removes reliance on a third party and makes you responsible for security.
Used in 12 analyses - Support and resistance
Price levels where a market has repeatedly turned: support below price where declines have stalled, resistance above where advances have stalled. More touches means a better-tested level.
Used in 6 analyses