Receipts — resolved since the last run
Both calls that matured today were misses. Both are engine-epoch-5 rows, graded on whether price touched the stated level at any point inside the window.
| Call | Issued | Matured | Resolved | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solana (SOL) — leans to reach +1.37% within the next day (p 0.683) | 6 Oct 13:40 UTC | 7 Oct 13:40 UTC | 7 Oct 13:51 UTC | Miss — level not reached; closed −4.11% |
| Ethereum (ETH) — leans to reach +1.13% within the next day (p 0.582) | 6 Oct 13:40 UTC | 7 Oct 13:40 UTC | 7 Oct 13:51 UTC | Miss — level not reached; closed −5.77% |
Both were up-leans issued into a day that turned sharply lower across the majors. Neither came close.
Where the record stands
The headline measure — the Brier skill score against the base rate, on the probability we actually publish — is not computable yet: no epoch-5 seven-day call has resolved, against a minimum of 25. We will not quote a substitute in its place.
The one-day horizon, which is part of the accuracy record but scored on its own rather than in the seven-day headline, reads a skill score of −0.132 on 8 calls — its stated probabilities have scored worse than simply quoting the historical frequency. Earlier engine epochs graded a different claim and are not compared with this one; the most recent of them, epoch 4, closed at −0.004 on 34 seven-day calls, level with the base rate rather than ahead of it. The engine has no established edge, and the numbers below should be read that way.
New call
Ethereum (ETH) — leans to reach −1.13% within the next day. The engine puts this at roughly 59%, against a historical frequency of about 54% for a one-day touch of that size, so the gap is small and unvalidated. The lean comes almost entirely from the price-trend leg after yesterday's decline. Ethereum's coverage is broad — 33 scoped items across nine directional sources, no single source above about a third — but its tone sits close to Ethereum's own long-run average, so it neither confirms nor contradicts the trend. Analyst notes in the window describe Ethereum stalling at a resistance band [1] and both Bitcoin and Ethereum stuck in tight ranges [2].
The complement of this call is not a rise: about 41% is the chance Ethereum does not touch −1.13% inside the day, which includes drifting flat. Our book also carries a seven-day Ethereum up-lean issued on 4 October; the two are different claims on different horizons, each graded only on its own terms. Today's call is a fresh one-day forecast from the engine's routine scan, not an offset against the earlier one.
Unchanged
- Regime: the standing choppy read runs to 9 October and is not re-issued.
- Seven-day and three-day lanes: both are at their limits, so no new calls there today. Pump.fun scored a qualifying read on every horizon but already carries two standing calls.
- Structural questions: the new-record and drawdown questions already carry two standing reads each; the altseason re-score is materially unchanged from the standing read. A Pump.fun-versus-Bitcoin read produced no score.
