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Ethereum: the monthly 20-EMA sits 0.84 from price, and that gap moved the monthly read to sideways

Sep 16, 2026 · ETH

Our monthly scan's 20-EMA is at 2,421.6467 against a last price of 2,420.81 - a separation of 0.0346% of price, the tightest average-to-price gap on our nine-cell board. Price slipping back under it moved the monthly trend classification from up to sideways and alignment from aligned_up to mixed, the sideways reading a first across all thirty-six reads we have stored since 2026-06-23, the mixed label a first in Ethereum's twelve. Both faster scans still read up, with the nearest 3D resistance now 0.1685% above price.

What changed since the previous read (2026-09-10)

Ethereum's monthly cell is sitting on a knife edge. Its 20-period EMA is at 2,421.6467 against a last price of 2,420.81 — a separation of 0.84, or 0.0346% of price, and by a wide margin the tightest average-to-price gap anywhere on our nine-cell board. That is the whole of this read's headline change: at the previous read the monthly EMA sat 1.6219% below price and the monthly trend classified as up; price has since slipped back under it, and the monthly classification moved from up to sideways while multi-timeframe alignment moved from aligned_up to mixed.

The mechanism is price, not the average. The monthly EMA moved -4.30 over the period, 0.1772% of its own prior value; price moved -45.13, from 2,465.94 to 2,420.81, a change of -1.8301%. Every percentage distance below is measured against that current price: (level minus price) divided by price. The slower monthly 20-SMA never entered the argument — it sat 5.5744% above price a read ago and sits 7.4494% above now, at 2,601.15.

Three things here are firsts for our stored record, and each is a single query over the snapshots we publish. The aligned_up label lasted exactly one read. In the twelve reads recorded for Ethereum since 2026-06-23, the alignment label has never previously returned mixed. And across all thirty-six reads stored for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana in that same window, no monthly cell of any asset has ever returned a sideways trend before this one.

Both faster scans are unchanged in direction — 3D up, weekly up — but the 3D strength grade fell from strong to weak with no intermediate moderate step, which in Ethereum's twelve stored reads has not happened before. The efficiency ratio behind it went 0.7211 to 0.1911. That cell was the highest efficiency reading of the nine at the previous read; it is the lowest of the nine now.

The resistance ledgers on both faster scans re-resolved, and the ceilings landed essentially on top of price. The 3D swapped its nearest resistance from 2,566.53 at one touch to 2,424.89 at three touches, moving it from 4.0792% above price to 0.1685% above; it also gained 2,665.99 and dropped 4,755.00. The weekly swapped 2,566.53 for 2,425.465 at two touches, 4.0792% to 0.1923% above. Neither support ledger changed at all — not an entry, not a touch count, on any timeframe.

The nine-cell board

This is the cross-asset section of this week's batch, so the comparisons below cover all three assets on all three timeframes.

Ethereum's levels and zones

3D — trend up, strength weak, momentum bullish; RSI-14 63.86, efficiency ratio 0.1911. The 20-EMA at 2,257.33 sits 6.7532% below price, the 20-SMA at 2,196.77 9.2548% below. Supports: 2,356.41 (1 touch), 2,220.36 (1), 1,938.82 (1), 1,789.95 (3), 1,508.84 (2). Resistances: 2,424.89 (3), 2,566.53 (1), 2,665.99 (1), 3,425.17 (2), 4,253.72 (1). The nearest pair spans 2.8288% of price.

1W — trend up, strength strong, momentum bullish, all three unchanged; RSI-14 56.75, efficiency ratio 0.5570, the highest of the nine cells. The 20-EMA at 2,169.10 sits 10.3978% below price. Supports: 2,357.59 (1), 2,124.61 (4), 1,767.36 (3), 1,508.84 (2), 1,385.05 (1). Resistances: 2,425.465 (2), 2,809.27 (3), 3,425.17 (2), 3,562.82 (1), 3,744.83 (1).

1M — trend sideways, strength weak, momentum neutral; RSI-14 48.10, efficiency ratio 0.1935. The scan lists exactly one support: 1,548.08, carrying eight touches, 36.0513% below price. Nearest resistance is 3,580.34, 47.8984% above. That band is 83.9497% of price, or 2.5482x one monthly ATR, and the monthly lists no order block of either kind.

Both faster scans carry an unmitigated bullish order block well beneath price: 1,863.67 to 1,925.00 on the 3D, 23.015% to 20.481% below, formed 12 bars ago, and 1,853.62 to 1,931.57 on the weekly, 5 bars old. Neither has been traded through since forming. The conventional reading of a zone like that is an area of concentrated prior buying that traders watch for a reaction; both currently sit well away from where price is trading.

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