The week-ahead regime read stays risk-off. Bitcoin's signal blend points lower across momentum, coverage and the broader cross-asset read, three of four tracked majors lean down, and equity coverage skews bearish while the crypto-market tone has cooled to neutral. The lone exception remains Solana, where cross-source coverage has stayed strongly constructive.
What resolved since last run
One call matured and scored: an Ethereum 7-day downside lean resolved correct — ETH fell well past the move threshold over its window. That keeps the model's recent edge calls running modestly ahead of their base rates, though the sample is still small and every number here is provisional.
Honest scorecard (last 30 days, edge calls): hit rate 50% (n=4), and our edge calls have landed about 16 points above the base rate an always-bet-the-base-rate shadow would have scored. Calibration error is low (ECE ~ 0.04), but with only four resolved calls this is a starting read, not a track record — and misses are reported here right alongside hits.
This week's leans
Bitcoin — downside lean held. Momentum, coverage and the broader read all point lower. Ethereum — downside lean firms as momentum turns sharply down. XRP — fresh downside lean; momentum rolls over and coverage skews bearish. Solana — upside lean held; it remains the only conviction bid in a defensive tape, on strongly bullish coverage and firm momentum.
Longer-horizon structural reads (unchanged)
A new Bitcoin record within six months stays unlikely — a historical-frequency read, not a directional edge. A broad altseason within six weeks remains the less-likely outcome. At least one major suffering a 20%-plus drawdown over six months stays near-certain. Over the quarter, Ethereum and XRP each lean toward trailing Bitcoin, while Solana leans toward outperforming it.
All reads are descriptive and probabilistic, not advice. Probabilities are model-derived and provisional during calibration.
